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Since there is a void of physical evidence, discussions of the nature and chronology of the Exodus and the Israelite Conquest of Canaan have to draw upon the information provided in the Hebrew Scriptures for data . Except for the Hebrew Scriptures nothing is known scientifically or in ancient literature of the Exodus. Many scholars doubt there ever was an Exodus or a Conquest and ascribe them to myth. From a scientific view scholars cannot verify the occurrence of these events. Even in terms of the Hebrew Scriptures the exact dates of the Exodus and the Conquest are unknown. Yet absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
In terms of the Exodus, an event understood to have happened over three millennia past, what can we know and how can we know it? Assuming these events did occur and that the Hebrew Scriptures are dependable as historical documents in recording these events we have some basis for analysis. There are sufficient bits of information recorded in the Hebrew Scriptures for us to theoretically match with non-biblical literary and archaeological records. As a result biblical scholars propose three alternatives for the Exodus and Conquest -- they are simply a myth, they occurred in the fifteen century BCE (the early Exodus view), they occurred in the thirteenth century BCE (the late Exodus view).
One beginning point for analysis is the fourth year of Solomon when the construction of Solomon's temple began. Jack Finegan says this probably was 968/967 (Finegan 1998:201). J. N. Oswalt places Solomon's fourth year at ca. 967 (Oswalt 1997:676). Walter C. Kaiser suggests ca. 966 BCE (Kaiser). Nahum Sarna, writing in Ancient Israel: A Short History from Abraham to the Roman Destruction of the Temple, opts for ca. 958. He writes:
It is generally agreed that Solomon came to the throne in about 962 B.C., so that according to this reckoning the Exodus would have occurred about 1438 B.C. However, most scholars question the accuracy of the number 480. It bears the marks of a symbolic rather than literal number. (Sarna 1988:36.)
Sarna believes that the "biblical writer wanted to place the Temple at the center of biblical history", in the fourth year of Solomon, when he commenced the building of the Temple, exactly in between the Exodus and the Babylonian Exile (Sarna 1988:36). The 480 years would be symbolic representing 12 generations of 40 years each.
As you can see this benchmark is hardly a firm one. The exact years of Solomon's reign are uncertain. What we are left with is that I Kings 6:1 places the Exodus 480 years earlier which, according to the above scholars could have been in 967, 966, or 958. Thus the Exodus could have been in 1447, 1446, or 1438. All three of these dates would be consistent with Exodus 12:41.
In Exodus 12:40-41 where the writer comments twice that the ancient Israelites lived in Egypt, that is, sojourned there, 430 years. Verse 41 adds "to the very day". What does the phrase "to the very day" mean? As Herrmann pointed out, at the very least it shows that they counted days. The implication is that they knew what month and day it was. It was Abib (Nisan) 14. Exodus 12:2 records that God informed Moses that from that point on this month of Abib was to be the first month of the year for Israel. The context shows that they knew what month it was, but not that it was to be the first one. In any case, does "to the very day" refer to the specific day of the week? Perhaps so.
In considering the matter we have two basic approaches to the calendar. The Rabbinic Calculated Calendar, known also as the Hillel II Calendar, and the Observed Calendar. The former sets Abib 1 (Nisan) and the calendar for the year based upon mathematical rules. The latter is a calendar based upon visual observation of the first new crescent of the moon. The chart below provides data for the Rabbinic Calculated Calendar. On the Rabbinic Calculated Calendar all three of the years cited as possible Exodus years, 1447, 1446, and 1438, fell even to the day of the week exactly as they did 430 years earlier (setout in red bold on the chart). In 1447 Nisan 14 was a Saturday and 430 years earlier it was a Saturday. In 1446 it was a Wednesday as it was 430 years earlier. In 1438 it was a Monday as it was 430 years earlier. There are other options as well in both calendar systems (highlighted in red on the chart). The chart includes calendar data for both Maximalist and Minimalist positions.
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