Luke in Acts 2 states that 3,000 Jews, augmenting the existing 500 Christians first receiving the Holy Spirit, became Judeo-Christians on Pentecost in CE 30. Projections based upon Gilbert�s population estimates, where presumably up to 50% of the empire�s population of Jewish stock had become Christians by CE 300, would require a 28.4% per decade growth rate assuming an initial Christian population as 3,500 in CE 30. Only an exhausted recruitment pool of Jews would have remained by CE 300 as the population would have been fished out. Any projection beyond a 3 million upper limit would be far too speculative.

Assuming, for purposes arguendo, an initial Judeo-Christian population of 3,500 in CE 30, and a growth rate of 33.3% per decade, the total population of Christians in the world would be 34.8 million in CE 350. This figure is consistent with Stark�s hypothesis that 56.5% of the Roman population of 60 million, that is about 33,882,008 were Christians by CE 350 (Stark 1996:7-9). Population growth based on these presumptions are provided in Growth Projection 2, which is a projection for all Christians in the world not just in the Roman Empire.

See Column 3 in Growth Projection 2, for population projections based upon Acts 2. The CE 300 reported figure of 8,267,698 in Column 3 is a worldwide projection of Christian population, out of which roughly 6 million, 75 percent, resided in the Roman empire, and 2,267,698 outside the Roman world. Note that these projections include as Christians all persons claiming to be so whether actually practicing Christians or not, and irrespective of their being labeled sects, cults, orthodox, or heterodox. The projection assumes there were no gentile Christians prior to 40 CE and that the Jewish population was "fished out" by 300 CE.

The projecting of an initial Judeo-Christian population of 3,500 to 3 million by CE 300 requires a 28.4% rate of growth per decade. These data appear at Column 4 in Growth projection 2. Imputation of the corresponding Gentile Christian population projections in Column 5 result from the differences between the figures in Column 3 and Column 4. Again, comparison of these projections show that Gentile Christians became the clear majority in the third century about 225 CE.

The foregoing projections consisted of estimates based upon a Judeo-Christian population of 3 million in 300 CE. This was the defined upper limit for purposes arguendo. A lower limit is difficult to set, but considering that Judeo-Christianity consisted of both the Nazarenes of Palestine and the Hellenistic Judeo-Christians in the Diaspora the membership of the movement at its seeming height, CE 300�350, was likely not less than 1 million and more likely more than double that number.

Growth Projection 3, shows data developed for a population projection based upon this presumed lower limit of 1 million by 300 CE. This projection, a decidedly conservative one, assumed there was an initial population of Judeo-Christians of 3,500 in CE 30 and a growth rate of 23.3% per decade. By this projection Gentiles had become a majority, 54.1%, by CE 130. They were the clear majority, 71% by CE 200.

Based on this analysis it appears that Gentiles became the clear majority in the middle of the third century. If the Judeo-Christian community never exceeded 2,000,000 then the Gentiles likely became the majority about 150. If Judeo-Christians never exceeded 1,000,000 then Gentiles would have become the clear majority about 125. This would be a highly conservative estimate. In any case, Gentiles clearly were the majority in the mid-third century. They most likely swamped Christians of Jewish ethnicity early in the fourth century and trumped them late in the fourth.

Page last edited: 01/29/06 08:16 AM

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