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Biblical conservatives would attribute more veracity to the report in Acts 2. There the writer of Acts claimed that 3,000 Jews, augmenting the existing 500 first Christians, became Judeo-Christians on Pentecost in CE 30. Projections based upon Gilbert�s population estimates, where presumably up to 50% of the empire�s population of Jewish stock had become Christians by CE 300, would require a 28.4% per decade growth rate assuming an initial Christian population as 3,500 in CE 30. Only an exhausted recruitment pool of Jews would have remained by CE 300 as the population would have been fished out. Any projection beyond a 3 million upper limit would be far too speculative.
Assuming, for purposes arguendo, an initial Judeo-Christian population of 3,500 in CE 30, and a growth rate of 33.3% per decade, the total population of Christians in the world would be 34.5 million in CE 350. This figure is consistent with Stark�s hypothesis that 56.5% of the Roman population of 60 million, that is about 33,882,008 were Christians by CE 350 (Stark 1996:7-9). Population growth based on these presumptions are provided in Table 4, Growth Projection 2, which is a projection for all Christians in the world.
Table 4
Growth Projection 2
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|||||
|
Year |
Decade |
Number of Christians at a 1/3 (33.3%) per decade growth rate |
Number of Christians of Jewish Stock at a 28.4% per decade growth rate |
Derived Number of Christians of gentile Stock |
Gentile Percentage Total Christians in the Roman Empire |
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
|
30 |
0 |
P0=3,500 |
3,500 |
0 |
0 |
|
40 |
1 |
4,666 |
4,494 |
172 |
3.7 |
|
50 |
2 |
6,219 |
5,770 |
449 |
7.2 |
|
70 |
4 |
11,051 |
9,513 |
1,538 |
13.9 |
|
100 |
7 |
26,175 |
20,138 |
6,037 |
23.0 |
|
130 |
10 |
61,957 |
42,630 |
19,327 |
31.2 |
|
150 |
12 |
110,162 |
70,283 |
39,879 |
36.2 |
|
200 |
17 |
436,640 |
245,286 |
191,354 |
43.8 |
250 |
22 |
1,951,333 |
856,049 |
1,095,284 |
56.1 |
|
300 |
27 |
8,212,627 |
2,987,608 |
5,212,621 |
63.5 |
|
350 |
32 |
34,564,703 |
3,000,000+ |
31,561,703 |
91.3 |
See Column 3 in Table 4, Growth Projection 2, for population projections based upon Acts 2. The CE 300 reported figure of 8,212,627 in Column 3 is a worldwide projection of Christian population, out of which roughly 6 million, 75 percent, resided in the Roman empire, and 2,212,627 outside the Roman world. Note that the projections in Table 3 and Table 4 include as Christians all claiming to be so whether actually practicing Christians or not, and irrespective of their being labeled sects, cults, orthodox, or heterodox.
The projecting of an initial Judeo-Christian population of 3,500 to 3 million by CE 350 requires a 28.4% rate of growth per decade. These data appear at Column 4 in Table 4. Imputation of the corresponding Gentile Christian population projections in Column 5 result from the differences between the figures in Column 3 and Column 4. Again, comparison of these projections show that Gentile Christians became the clear majority in the third century.
Table 5
Growth Projection 3
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|||||
|
Year |
Decade |
Number of Christians at 1/3 33.3% per decade growth rate |
Number of Christians of Jewish Stock at a 23.3% per decade growth rate |
Derived Number of Christians of gentile Stock |
Gentile Percentage Total Christians in the Roman Empire |
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
|
30 |
0 |
P0=3,500 |
3,500 |
0 |
0 |
|
40 |
1 |
4,666 |
4,316 |
350 |
7.5 |
|
50 |
2 |
6,219 |
5,321 |
898 |
14.4 |
|
70 |
4 |
11,051 |
8,089 |
2,962 |
26.8 |
|
100 |
7 |
26,175 |
15,163 |
11,012 |
42.1 |
|
130 |
10 |
61,957 |
28,425 |
33,352 |
54.1 |
|
150 |
12 |
110,162 |
45,214 |
66,948 |
60.1 |
|
200 |
17 |
436,640 |
123,152 |
313,488 |
71.8 |
|
250 |
22 |
1,951,333 |
350,958 |
1,600,375 |
82.0 |
|
300 |
27 |
8,212,627 |
1,000,000 |
7,212,627 |
87.8 |
|
350 |
32 |
34,564,703 |
1,000,000 |
33,564,703 |
97.1 |
The two foregoing projections consisted of estimates based upon a Judeo-Christian population of 3 million in 300 CE. This was the defined upper limit for purposes arguendo. A lower limit is difficult to set, but considering that Judeo-Christianity consisted of both the Nazarenes of Palestine and the Hellenistic Judeo-Christians in the Diaspora the membership of the movement at its seeming height, CE 300�350, was likely not less than 1 million and more likely more than double that number. Table 5, Growth Projection 3, shows data developed for a population projection based upon this presumed lower limit of 1 million by 300 CE. This projection, a decidedly conservative one, assumed there was an initial population of Judeo-Christians of 3,500 in CE 30 and a growth rate of 23.3% per decade. By this projection Gentiles had become a majority, 54.1%, by CE 130. They were the clear majority, 71.8%, by CE 200.
Page last edited: 11/28/04 08:44 AM
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